Kungani ukwenyuka kwentengo ye-tungsten kuzoletha izinselele embonini yokumba?

Tamanani e-unsten akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-200%unyaka nonyaka ngasekupheleni kuka-2025, kwafinyelela izinga eliphezulu cishe eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ngenxa yokuntuleka okukhulu kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo esikhulayo.

I-Tungsten (ikakhulukazi i-tungsten carbide) ibalulekile kakhulu kuma-drill bits,amathuluzi okugaya,izingxenye/amathuluzi angagugi, kanye nezinto zokulinganisa isisindo lapho kubholwa. Ukwenyuka kwentengo yayo okukhulu kuletha izinselele eziningi:

I. Ukwenyuka Okukhulu Kwezindleko Eziqondile kanye Nokuguguleka Kwenzuzo Okukhulu

1. Ukwanda Okukhulu Kwezindleko Zokukhiqiza Ama-Drill Bit

• I-Tungsten carbide iyinto eyinhloko yama-tricone drill bits (TCI), ama-PDC drill bit matrices kanye nezendlalelo zokushisela ze-polycrystalline diamond compact, ezibangela lokhu.15-25%yezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa eziphelele zama-drill bits.
• Amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezibalulekile njenge-tungsten ne-cobalt akhuphuke ngo-15-20%uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022, okuholela ku-8-10%ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokukhiqiza izingcezu zokubhoboza ze-tricone.
• Ama-drill bits e-PDC ohlobo lwe-matrix asebenzisa inani elikhulu le-tungsten carbide powder, futhi ukunyuka kwentengo kukhulisa ngqo izindleko zokukhiqiza i-matrix.

1. Ukwenyuka Kwezindleko Zokusebenza Zokubhoboza Zonke

• Izingcezu zokubhoboza zingenye yezingxenye ezisetshenziswa kakhulu enkambisweni yokubhoboza, futhi ukwenyuka kwentengo kudluliselwa ngqo ezimalini zesevisi yokubhoboza.
• Ekubholeni okwakheka kokuqina okuphezulu, impilo yokusebenza kwama-tungsten carbide drill bits idlula izikhathi ezingama-50 kuneyama-steel bits avamile, okwenza kube nzima ukuwashintsha kalula, ngakho-ke ingcindezi yezindleko ayinakugwenywa.
• Ngaphezu kwama-drill bits, amanani ezingxenye ze-tungsten carbide njengezihlalo zama-valve epayipi lokubhoboza, ama-nozzle okuqhumisa isihlabathi kanye nama-pipe liner angagugi nawo akhuphuke ngasikhathi sinye, okwandisa izindleko zokusebenza.

1. Ukucindezela Okubili Enzuzweni Yenkampani

• Izinga lokukhula kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezisezingeni eliphezulu lidlula elokwenyuka kwamanani emikhiqizo esezingeni eliphansi, okuholela ekubambezelekeni kokudluliselwa kwezindleko.
• Ukuncintisana okukhulu emakethe, ikakhulukazi phakathi kwamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo okumba, kunciphisa isikhala sawo sokwenyuka kwentengo, kanti amanye amabhizinisi abona izinzuzo zawo zenzalo ziwela ngaphansi.10%.
• Izikhondlakhondla zomhlaba wonke ezifana neSandvik zimemezele ukwenyuka kwentengo yomkhiqizo ngo-22%, okusahlulekile ukumboza ngokugcwele ukukhula kwezindleko, okushiya amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo esesimweni esinzima kakhulu.

II. Izinselele Zokuphepha Nokuzinza Kwe-Supply Chain

1. Ukulawulwa Kwezinsizakusebenza Okuqinisiwe Kukhulisa Ukushoda Kokuphakelwa

• I-Tungsten ifakwe "ohlwini lwezinsimbi ezibalulekile" yi-EU, i-United States, i-Japan nezinye izifunda, okuholele ekuqinisweni kokulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokubuyekezwa kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla.
• Njengomkhiqizi omkhulu wezinsiza ze-tungsten emhlabeni (ohlanganisa ngaphezu kwama-80% ezindawo zokugcina zomhlaba), i-China yaqala ukulawula ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngoFebhuwari 2025, ifuna "ilayisensi eyodwa nge-oda" yezinsimbi ezingu-25 ezingavamile okuhlanganisa ne-ammonium paratungstate.
• Ukukhula okusheshayo kwesidingo esivela emikhakheni yokukhiqiza ephezulu kanye nemikhakha emisha yamandla (njengezintambo ze-tungsten ze-photovoltaic kanye ne-nuclear fusion) kuye kwaqinisa umncintiswano wezinsizakusebenza ezilinganiselwe embonini yokumba.

1. Ukungalingani Kwezidingo Zokunikezwa Kwempahla Kubangela Ukuguquguquka Kwentengo

• Isidingo se-tungsten emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi sidlule amathani ayi-130,000 ngo-2025, okuwukwenyuka okungaba ngu-6% unyaka nonyaka, kuyilapho ukukhula kokunikezwa kusalokhu kulinganiselwe.
• Izinga lemithombo ye-tungsten ore yasekhaya lehlile, kanti izinga elimaphakathi le-ore eluhlaza lehle lisuka ku-0.42% ngo-2024 laya ku-0.28%, okwandisa izindleko zokumba.
• Izinqubomgomo eziqinile zokuvikela imvelo ziye zavimbela ukumbiwa kwe-tungsten ore, okwenza uhlangothi lokuphakelwa lucindezeleke kakhulu.

1. Ingozi Yokuphazamiseka Kokuphakelwa Kwamabhizinisi Amancane Naphakathi

• Cishe ama-30% amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi aseYurophu amathuluzi aphoqelekile ukumisa ukwamukelwa kwama-oda ngenxa yokushoda kwempahla noma izindleko eziphakeme.
• Amabhizinisi okubhoboza angase abhekane nokubambezeleka kokulethwa kwezingxenye ezibalulekile njengezingcezu zokubhoboza, okuthinta inqubekela phambili yephrojekthi kanye nokusebenza kwenkontileka.

III. Ingcindezi Ekhulayo Ekukhetheni Ubuchwepheshe Nokusungula Izinto Ezintsha

1. Izinselele ku-R&D yokushintshana kwezinto ezibonakalayo

• I-tungsten carbide inezinzuzo ezinkulu zokusebenza ezindaweni ezinomfutho ophezulu, ezithinta kakhulu futhi eziguguleka ngesihlabathi, okwenza kube nzima ukuthola indawo ephelele esikhathini esifushane.
• Ukuthuthukisa ezinye izinto ezingabizi kakhulu noma ubuchwepheshe bokumboza kudinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kwe-R&D kanye nesikhathi sokuqinisekisa.
• I-tungsten carbide eyisiyingi inikeza ukusebenza okungcono kune-angular tungsten carbide kodwa ibiza kakhulu ngokuphindwe ka-3-4, okubeka ukukhetha kobuchwepheshe enkingeni phakathi "kwezindleko nokusebenza".

1. Ingcindezi Yokuthuthukisa Izinqubo Nokuthuthukisa Ukusebenza Kahle

• Amabhizinisi aphoqelekile ukuqinisa imizamo yokuthuthukisa izinqubo, njengokuklama kabusha isakhiwo sensimbi esiyinhloko sama-PDC drill bits ukuze kuncishiswe ukusetshenziswa kwe-tungsten carbide powder (inqubo entsha inganciphisa izindleko ngo-54%).
• Ukuthuthukisa amazinga okusetshenziswa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa, amabhizinisi ahamba phambili anyuse izinga lokusetshenziswa kwawo lisuka ku-85% laya ku-92%.
• Ukuphinda usebenzise futhi usebenzise izingcezu zokubhoboza imfucuza sekuyindlela ebalulekile, futhi isilinganiso sezinto eziphinde zasetshenziswa sidinga ukukhushulwa sibe ngaphezu kuka-25% ukuze kuncishiswe ngempumelelo ingcindezi yezindleko.

1. Izingozi Zokulungisa Imizila Yobuchwepheshe

• Amanye amabhizinisi angase ashintshele kwezinye izindlela ezingabizi kakhulu njengezinsimbi zokubhoboza izinyo, kodwa ukusebenza kwazo okuphansi kanye nokuphila kwazo okufushane kwenkonzo ezindaweni eziqinile kuzokwandisa izindleko zizonke.
• Amaphrojekthi okubhoboza aphezulu (njengemithombo yolwandle olujulile kanye nemithombo yokushisa ephezulu) ancike kakhulu ekusebenzeni kwe-tungsten carbide, okushiya isikhala esincane sokulungiswa kobuchwepheshe futhi okuholela ekucindezelweni okukhulu kwezindleko.

IV. Ukuncintisana Kwemakethe Nokuhlelwa Kabusha Kwesimo Sezimboni

1. Ukwanda Kokugxila Kwemboni

• Amabhizinisi amakhulu akwazi kangcono ukumelana nomthelela wokwenyuka kwamanani ngenxa yomnotho wawo wobukhulu, izinzuzo zobuchwepheshe kanye namakhono okulawula uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla.
• Amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo angase aqedwe noma atholakale ngenxa yamakhono okulawula izindleko abuthakathaka kanye nezindlela zezimali ezilinganiselwe.
• Uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-tungsten carbide lomhlaba wonke lugxile emabhizinisini aholayo, okwandisa kakhulu ukuhlukahluka kwemboni.

1. Ukuncintisana Okuqinile Kwemakethe Yamazwe Ngamazwe

• Ukulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweShayina kushintshe iphethini yokuphakelwa kwe-tungsten carbide emhlabeni wonke, okubeka amabhizinisi aseYurophu naseMelika ezingcindezini ezimbili zokuntuleka kokuphakelwa kanye nokwenyuka kwamanani.
• Amabhizinisi emazweni asafufusa angase athole isabelo semakethe esengeziwe ngenxa yezinzuzo zezindleko, okushintsha isimo sokuncintisana semakethe yemishini yokubhoboza yomhlaba wonke.
• Izinqubomgomo zentela kanye nezithiyo zokuhweba seziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, okwandisa izindleko kanye nokungaqiniseki kwebhizinisi lamazwe ngamazwe.

1. Izinguquko Ekufunweni Kwamakhasimende

• Izinkampani zikawoyela zingase zinciphise isabelomali sokuhlola nesokuthuthukisa, zilibazise noma zikhansele amaphrojekthi amasha, futhi zehlise isidingo sezinsizakalo zokumba.
• Amakhasimende athambekele kakhulu ekukhetheni izixazululo zokubhoboza ezingabizi kakhulu futhi abeka phambili izidingo eziphakeme zesikhathi senkonzo kanye nokusebenza kahle kwama-drill bits.
• Izigaba zokulungiswa kwentengo ezinkontilekeni zesikhathi eside sezibe yinto ebalulekile ezingxoxweni, okwandisa izindleko kanye nezingozi zokuxhumana kwebhizinisi.